The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Sept. 23 raised Korea's economic growth rate to 3.2% for 2026. The ADB said the factors behind its upward revision of the forecast include robust manufacturing indicators, increased exports driven by rising global demand for AI semiconductors and a boost in private consumption led by expansionary fiscal policy and solid corporate earnings. The photo shows the container terminal at Gwangyang Port in the Jeonnam-Gwangju region. (Yeosu Gwangyang Port Authority)

By Yoon Sojung

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised Korea's economic growth forecast for the year to 3.2% in a significant increase.

The Ministry of Finance and Economy on Sept. 23 said the ADB projected that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for this year would be 3.2% in its Asian Development Outlook report released the same day.

This figure represents an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the 2.6% forecast announced in July and an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the April projection of 1.9%. This is the bank's second consecutive upward revision this year alone.

The ADB mentioned sound manufacturing indicators such as the purchasing managers' index (PMI) and business sentiment index (BSI) from July and August as its reasons for the adjustment.

It said the revised forecast reflects a combination of factors including rising exports driven by surging global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, expansionary fiscal policy and a moderate recovery in private consumption driven by improved corporate earnings.

The forecast for this year's consumer inflation rate remained at 2.7%, unchanged from the bank's July projection. Although rising international energy prices and strong domestic demand are exerting pressure on prices, the ADB said that the government's price stabilization policies are likely to partially offset these effects.

As the main downside risks, the bank mentioned escalating geopolitical tensions, increased volatility in global financial markets, and the potential for a contraction in exports and investment if the U.S. imposes more tariffs.

The ADB predicted that the country's economy will grow by 2.3% next year, up 0.3 percentage points from its previous July forecast (2.0%). The inflation rate for next year also remained unchanged at 2.2%.

The ADB also projected that developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region will have a 5.0% growth rate this year, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous July forecast. The bank predicted that growth in the region will be driven by expanded private investment, the impact of government stimulus measures and strong exports in AI-related industries.

 arete@korea.kr