Why the U.S.-South Korea summit was a big success
By Harry J. Kazianis
While I was visiting Seoul roughly two weeks ago, experts and government officials I spoke with were quite concerned over South Korean President Moon Jae-in's summit with U.S. President Donald Trump. Their fears were easy to understand and empathize with. Considering that the U.S.-North Korea summit didn’t end with any sort of agreement, there was worry that both Pyongyang and Washington could be getting ready to dig in their heels and fall back to hardline positions that left little or no room for compromise. Or in a worst-case scenario, either party may decide that it no longer wants to continue negotiations, possibly setting the stage for a return to the days of "fire and fury" or nuclear and missile tests.
The good news is that those fears were all for naught, as President Moon once again proved that what I've named the "Moon miracle"—or Seoul's historic efforts to try and forge a lasting peace regime on the Korean Peninsula—is very much alive and well. In a summit last week that can only be described as a resounding success, Moon secured his primary objective. He needed to ensure that Washington was still willing to continue with the diplomatic track, emphasizing in his meeting with Trump that the Hanoi summit, though no agreement was reached, "was not a source of disappointment, but it is actually the part of a bigger process that will lead us to a bigger agreement." Moon also suggested a third meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which hopefully could set the stage for a deal that could move forward on important historic concessions that both sides could make jointly and simultaneously.
For his part, President Trump seemed cautiously optimistic that common ground can be found with North Korea, praising his positive relationship with Kim. In explaining that a third summit with Pyongyang "was possible," Trump also noted that a long-term diplomatic track with the North will take time, alluding to the fact that quick results would be tough to come by. "I enjoy the summits. I enjoy being with the Chairman (Kim). I think it's been very productive. And it really is—it's a step by step. It's not going to go fast. I've been telling you that for a long time. If it goes fast, it's not going to be the proper deal."
Thankfully, it seems Chairman Kim was listening. Pyongyang also seems open to another summit but with an important condition attached, that Kim would be looking for greater flexibility in future negotiations. "It is essential for the U.S. to quit its current calculation method and approach us with a new one," Kim said in a speech late last week to the Supreme People’s Assembly.
Trump heard the message loud and clear. Responding the next day on Twitter to Kim, Trump echoed a positive tone, saying "our personal relationship remains very good, perhaps the term excellent would be even more accurate, and that a third summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand." In a second tweet just minutes later, Trump also noted that he looked "forward to the day, which could be soon, when nuclear weapons and sanctions can be removed, and then watching North Korea become one of the most successful nations of the world!"
Now is the time for President Moon to press forward, leveraging his role as a facilitator of talks between Washington and Pyongyang, ensuring that the diplomatic approach undertaken by all sides continues to move forward. And there is evidence that North Korea may be ready to offer an important concession. "If the DPRK, armed with self-reliance, no longer raises the sanctions relief issue, the U.S. will have to take other actions to prove its commitment to denuclearization, end of hostile policy against the North and improvement in bilateral relations," the pro-North Korea newspaper Choson Sinbo was quoted by Yonhap News as saying. Combine this with President Trump's apparent willingness to approach North Korea with a step-by-step approach, a potential deal that could further relations between Washington and Pyongyang seems quite possible.
Seoul's role, and the personal diplomacy of President Moon, will become more critical than ever. Moon, now armed with ample positive signals from both Trump and Kim, has several tools to facilitate even more fruitful dialogue. One possibility would be to hold a fourth inter-Korean summit in the coming months, potentially with Chairman Kim visiting Seoul, the first by any North Korean leader. There, Moon and Kim could work on efforts to further inter-Korean cooperation as well as set the stage for what could be a transformative third U.S.-North Korea summit.
No matter what happens, one thing is certainly clear: President Moon's approach to secure a peace regime for the Korean Peninsula is working. Recent events prove that such an approach won't be easy, but over the long run, it could produce historic results. And that's something the entire world should support and cheer for. I know I will.
Harry J. Kazianis is director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest.
By Harry J. Kazianis
While I was visiting Seoul roughly two weeks ago, experts and government officials I spoke with were quite concerned over South Korean President Moon Jae-in's summit with U.S. President Donald Trump. Their fears were easy to understand and empathize with. Considering that the U.S.-North Korea summit didn’t end with any sort of agreement, there was worry that both Pyongyang and Washington could be getting ready to dig in their heels and fall back to hardline positions that left little or no room for compromise. Or in a worst-case scenario, either party may decide that it no longer wants to continue negotiations, possibly setting the stage for a return to the days of "fire and fury" or nuclear and missile tests.
The good news is that those fears were all for naught, as President Moon once again proved that what I've named the "Moon miracle"—or Seoul's historic efforts to try and forge a lasting peace regime on the Korean Peninsula—is very much alive and well. In a summit last week that can only be described as a resounding success, Moon secured his primary objective. He needed to ensure that Washington was still willing to continue with the diplomatic track, emphasizing in his meeting with Trump that the Hanoi summit, though no agreement was reached, "was not a source of disappointment, but it is actually the part of a bigger process that will lead us to a bigger agreement." Moon also suggested a third meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which hopefully could set the stage for a deal that could move forward on important historic concessions that both sides could make jointly and simultaneously.
For his part, President Trump seemed cautiously optimistic that common ground can be found with North Korea, praising his positive relationship with Kim. In explaining that a third summit with Pyongyang "was possible," Trump also noted that a long-term diplomatic track with the North will take time, alluding to the fact that quick results would be tough to come by. "I enjoy the summits. I enjoy being with the Chairman (Kim). I think it's been very productive. And it really is—it's a step by step. It's not going to go fast. I've been telling you that for a long time. If it goes fast, it's not going to be the proper deal."
Thankfully, it seems Chairman Kim was listening. Pyongyang also seems open to another summit but with an important condition attached, that Kim would be looking for greater flexibility in future negotiations. "It is essential for the U.S. to quit its current calculation method and approach us with a new one," Kim said in a speech late last week to the Supreme People’s Assembly.
Trump heard the message loud and clear. Responding the next day on Twitter to Kim, Trump echoed a positive tone, saying "our personal relationship remains very good, perhaps the term excellent would be even more accurate, and that a third summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand." In a second tweet just minutes later, Trump also noted that he looked "forward to the day, which could be soon, when nuclear weapons and sanctions can be removed, and then watching North Korea become one of the most successful nations of the world!"
Now is the time for President Moon to press forward, leveraging his role as a facilitator of talks between Washington and Pyongyang, ensuring that the diplomatic approach undertaken by all sides continues to move forward. And there is evidence that North Korea may be ready to offer an important concession. "If the DPRK, armed with self-reliance, no longer raises the sanctions relief issue, the U.S. will have to take other actions to prove its commitment to denuclearization, end of hostile policy against the North and improvement in bilateral relations," the pro-North Korea newspaper Choson Sinbo was quoted by Yonhap News as saying. Combine this with President Trump's apparent willingness to approach North Korea with a step-by-step approach, a potential deal that could further relations between Washington and Pyongyang seems quite possible.
Seoul's role, and the personal diplomacy of President Moon, will become more critical than ever. Moon, now armed with ample positive signals from both Trump and Kim, has several tools to facilitate even more fruitful dialogue. One possibility would be to hold a fourth inter-Korean summit in the coming months, potentially with Chairman Kim visiting Seoul, the first by any North Korean leader. There, Moon and Kim could work on efforts to further inter-Korean cooperation as well as set the stage for what could be a transformative third U.S.-North Korea summit.
No matter what happens, one thing is certainly clear: President Moon's approach to secure a peace regime for the Korean Peninsula is working. Recent events prove that such an approach won't be easy, but over the long run, it could produce historic results. And that's something the entire world should support and cheer for. I know I will.
Harry J. Kazianis is director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest.