By
Harry J. Kazianis
When I discuss Korean history with audiences here in the U.S., the one emotion I try to convey is a sense of loss from what I call Korea's three major tragedies of modern times: colonization, the Korean War, which killed millions of people, and the resulting split of the Korean nation that has now spanned generations.
Surely this is no easy task. Trying to explain the history of a foreign land to an audience that may have no prior knowledge of the subject is a challenge, to say the least. However, using historical examples and even creating some historical fiction on the fly can help. I ask the audience to imagine that the U.S. Civil War never ended and that America remained divided today, and before this, that it was conquered by Canada and colonized. While this might not be an exact comparison, judging by the shocked looks on their faces, they do get the point.
This makes what President Moon Jae-in has done over the last several years, what I've called the "Moon miracle," something truly special. His efforts to create a sense of mutual trust, shared economic benefits and integration as well as decreased military tensions with North Korea have paid major geopolitical dividends. And while inter-Korean relations have improved, we once again find ourselves diplomatically deadlocked despite three inter-Korean summits and an additional three separate historic meetings between U.S. President Donald J. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The good news is that, as North Korea sees it, the reason for pause in diplomacy -- U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises -- is now over. In the coming days, we could very well see American and North Korean negotiators sit down for working-level talks that may pave the way for a third U.S.-North Korea summit and hopefully the first steps toward the North's denuclearization.
All of that would be historic but just the beginning of a long journey for the Korean people. What comes after that is of critical importance to South Korea and the Moon administration. If history is to be made in the coming weeks or months, Seoul must be ready to play its part, extending its hand once again to Pyeongyang, doing what it can to heal old wounds, and foster a spirit of cooperation and what ultimately will be a shared destiny. Enter what President Moon referred to on Aug. 15 in a major address to the nation as his vision for a "peace economy," or in his words, "Prosperity is achieved through peace and also completes our liberation through the unification of the peninsula."
Make no mistake, President Moon's vision is clearly bold and carries some risk, but is recognition of what could be possible if North Korea moves forward on denuclearization and further détente with Seoul. As Moon explained in his speech:
“According to IMF estimates, Korea will lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its GDP per capita will surpass 40,000 USD around the year 2024. In addition, if we combine the capabilities of the two Koreas, even while maintaining our respective political systems, it will be possible to create a unified market of 80 million people. Once the Korean Peninsula is unified, it is expected to become one of the six largest economies in the world. There have been research findings both at home and abroad that concludes that an era of GDP per capita of 70,000 to 80,000 USD will be possible around 2050.”
Not only would a peace economy create a natural path toward eventual reunification, but over the short to the medium term, both Koreas stand to gain, filling economic gaps that they need to fill urgently. For Seoul, slower economic growth may present a challenge that cannot be easily solved due to demographic trends that could soon usher in an era when South Korea’s working age population could start shrinking as soon as next year. Investing in North Korea could bring to the South hundreds of billions of dollars in profits and assured economic growth, while at the same time help modernize the North's economy, which some estimates value at only USD 16 billion.
But none of this will be easy. North Korea, even if it denuclearizes and gets sanctions lifted, still has much to do to win the favor of South Korean business investment. Pyeongyang would need to create the necessary legal framework, some form of property rights and a business environment conducive to investment. Also, we cannot forget the sad state of human rights in the North, something that must be addressed if business investment from the South is to come to the North.
While all of this will take time and won’t occur overnight, it is clear that the Moon administration is thinking about the day when all Koreans can share in the benefits of denuclearization and an economy that can create prosperity across the entire peninsula. While reunification could take until 2045—the timetable President Moon offered in his Aug. 15 speech—now is the time to start thinking through the steps needed to get there. And I can't think of anything better to make that dream come true than a peace economy.
Harry J. Kazianis is director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest (formerly the Nixon Center) in Washington.