Opinion

Nov 27, 2020

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 Harry Kazianis

By Harry Kazianis
The Center for the National Interest



History teaches that a leadership transition can be a perilous time filled with uncertainty and tension, especially when it comes to global superpowers with alliance networks that stretch over the world. Such is surely the case as the world prepares for U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to become the 46th American leader.


The good news is that Korea need not feel any anxiety or stress, as the Biden administration could do something revolutionary to profoundly change the dynamics on the Korean Peninsula: merge the successful aspects of what U.S. President Barack Obama did well when it came to the bilateral alliance while building on the progress incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump made when it came to North Korea. If that occurs, President Moon Jae-in would have a partner in the Oval Office that shares a profoundly historical and forward-thinking approach that history will surely smile on.

First, consider what President-elect Biden could do quickly to follow in the footsteps of President Obama when it comes to strengthening the bilateral alliance. The latter focused on building an alliance based on mutual respect and growing military capabilities and devoid of any tough rhetoric on cost sharing, leaving that to negotiators and out of the press. That said, Biden should direct his national security team to quickly craft a special measures agreement (SMA), ending further talk about Seoul not contributing its proper share of financial resources to the alliance, something that is false. By any practical measure, Korea has paid its fair share and has one of the most powerful military arsenals on the planet, a credit to decades of strong planning and preparation by Seoul and Washington. President-elect Biden can quickly conclude an SMA -- even a multi-year agreement -- perhaps within his first 100 days after taking office. President Obama had a strong relationship with Seoul, and this must and can be rebuilt under the next U.S. chief executive.

Next, President-elect Biden must reassure Seoul that it can and will have a transfer of operational control (OPCON) of Korean military forces by 2022, or at least by the end of that year. Again, with Korea fielding one of the most dynamic, well-trained and seasoned armed forces in existence, there's no reason to think an OPCON transfer can't happen smoothly and efficiently. This is something President-elect Biden can champion as another simple but effective way to enhance the alliance for decades to come.

Then there is, of course, the challenge that is North Korea. While President-elect Biden might not want to be Kim Jong Un's pen pal or utilize the same personalized top-down diplomacy that President Trump championed, he can signal even during the transition that he will not abandon the progress made and clearly say he will build on the successes of President Trump and the policy approach set by President Moon. That means signaling immediately, either publicly or privately, that President-elect Biden wants to build a new relationship with North Korea free of spikes in tensions that have tarnished any chance toward peace. President-elect Biden, despite having not taken the Oval Office just yet, should say -- and quite soon -- that he never wants a situation in which the two Koreas head back to heated rhetoric that could accidentally start a war. He should also announce that he favors a step-by-step approach under which both sides build trust and a foundation for new relations based on reciprocal steps taken, with Washington not having a heavy hand in any negotiations.

Here is where President Moon could play a critical role in shaping events in North Korea diplomacy, and why his strategy has been the right one all along. He should try to convince President-elect Biden that he could be a historic leader if he ends the Korean War, even through a non-binding political declaration. President Moon firmly believes that the only real path toward North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons must flow though formally ending the state of war present on the Korean Peninsula for decades, something that should be common sense to any Korea watcher. Ending the war should be the foundation of any policy toward the North. It is also in no way a concession to Pyeongyang but the first step on a path toward lasting peace.

Even the best strategy for national security can fail if not enacted with a measure of urgency. President-elect Biden must understand that if he waits until March or April to unveil a North Korea policy — holding for a lengthy policy review — there could be dangerous waters ahead. We must consider that the North is under immense internal pressure due to economic sanctions, three typhoons, economic carnage due to the coronavirus, food insecurity and now potentially a shortage of foreign exchange reserves. We should recognize these problems and seek to head off a crisis, as Pyeongyang could press the incoming U.S. administration if it feels ignored or no progress is made in the foreseeable future. President-elect Biden must have the majority of his North Korea policy ready on day one and make public comments now on wanting a new relationship with the North, while working hand and hand with President Moon. Under this approach, I have every confidence that 2021 could be a historic year for the Korean Peninsula.

Harry J. Kazianis is senior director at the Center for the National Interest, a Washington-based non-partisan think tank founded by U.S. President Richard M. Nixon.